Model the event
Historical performance and available team or player information inform estimates of possible outcomes.
CHIMP PICKSfor all the bananas
How the odds are made.
Publicly documented methods, a simple pricing example, and a look back at analyst forecasts.
There is no single “Vegas algorithm.”
Sportsbooks combine statistical estimates with trading and risk management. Public disclosures describe the ingredients; they do not reveal the exact model weights or a reproducible pricing engine.
Publish a quote
The displayed odds include a bookmaker margin. They are not a direct statement of an outcome’s true probability.
Respond to information
New facts, market activity and the operator’s exposure can influence revised prices. A movement alone does not identify its cause.
The margin, in one example
Imagine two mutually exclusive outcomes with a 50% chance each. Fair decimal odds would be 2.00 on both. Hypothetical quotes of 1.91 on both imply 52.36% each.
52.36%Outcome A+52.36%Outcome B=104.71%Total, before rounding
The excess above 100% is 4.71 percentage points of overround. It is a property of the quoted prices, not a guaranteed profit rate. Removing it mathematically still does not establish the true probabilities.
Illustrative arithmetic only. No real event or sportsbook quote is used.What the major operators have disclosed
FanDuel / Flutter
FanDuel’s 2022 investor presentation describes quantitative models built on historical data alongside traders who manage inputs and respond to team and player news. Flutter also publicly describes proprietary pricing and risk tools.
FanDuel disclosure · 2022 ↗Flutter sportsbook technology ↗DraftKings
Its 2021 annual report describes proprietary sportsbook technology, trading and risk management, and the completed migration to its acquired SBTech platform. This establishes historical infrastructure, not today’s exact pricing formula.
DraftKings annual report · 2021 ↗Pinnacle
Its published risk-management discussion describes tracking initial prices, price changes, wagers and liabilities. That is evidence of an ongoing trading process; it does not expose its private probability model.
Pinnacle risk analytics ↗What cannot be reverse engineered from a line
The same public quote can result from different forecasts, margin allocations and risk decisions. Private model weights, customer activity and liabilities are missing. Any claimed reconstruction would need independent testing and clearly stated assumptions.
Joint outcomes also require assumptions about dependence: events involving the same players or game need not be independent. Public prices alone do not reveal those assumptions.
Analyst archive.
Sports Illustrated / MMQB winner forecasts. These are published opinions, not confirmed wagers or audited bettor records. Coverage: one NFL season’s reported records and three completed postseason events.
Curated historical snapshot · Reviewed September 12, 2026 · This archive is not a live feed.
2024 regular-season records · 6 analysts
Correct versus incorrect winner predictions, as reported by SI on January 23, 2025. Each row covers 272 predictions. Accuracy does not measure profitability; prices and stakes are unavailable.
| Analyst | Correct–incorrect | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Breer | 182–90 | 66.9% |
| Conor Orr | 165–107 | 60.7% |
| Gilberto Manzano | 171–101 | 62.9% |
| John Pluym | 186–86 | 68.4% |
| Matt Verderame | 198–74 | 72.8% |
| Mitch Goldich | 186–86 | 68.4% |
Source-reported totals; individual regular-season forecasts have not been independently regraded here. No spread, total, player-prop or ROI breakdown is available from this sample.
Where the published panel agreed—and what happened
A majority describes this panel’s opinions. Three selected games cannot establish predictive skill or represent all experts.
NFC Championship
Eagles 55–23 Commanders
4 of 6 chose EaglesMajority correct
Eagles 4 · Commanders 2
See every archived forecast
- Albert BreerEaglesCorrect
- Mitch GoldichEaglesCorrect
- Gilberto ManzanoCommandersIncorrect
- Conor OrrEaglesCorrect
- John PluymCommandersIncorrect
- Matt VerderameEaglesCorrect
Published January 23, 2025, before the event.
Published forecasts ↗Official final result ↗AFC Championship
Chiefs 32–29 Bills
4 of 6 chose BillsMajority incorrect
Bills 4 · Chiefs 2
See every archived forecast
- Albert BreerBillsIncorrect
- Mitch GoldichBillsIncorrect
- Gilberto ManzanoChiefsCorrect
- Conor OrrBillsIncorrect
- John PluymBillsIncorrect
- Matt VerderameChiefsCorrect
Published January 23, 2025, before the event.
Published forecasts ↗Official final result ↗Super Bowl LIX
Eagles 40–22 Chiefs
7 of 9 chose ChiefsMajority incorrect
Chiefs 7 · Eagles 2
See every archived forecast
- Albert BreerChiefsIncorrect
- Conor OrrEaglesCorrect
- Gilberto ManzanoChiefsIncorrect
- Matt VerderameChiefsIncorrect
- Greg BishopChiefsIncorrect
- Michael RosenbergChiefsIncorrect
- Andrew BrandtEaglesCorrect
- John PluymChiefsIncorrect
- Mitch GoldichChiefsIncorrect
Published February 6, 2025, before the event.
Published forecasts ↗Official final result ↗